Macroeconomic expectations of various economic agents are characterized by substantial cross-sectional heterogeneity …. In this paper, we focus on expectations heterogeneity among professional forecasters. We first present stylized facts and … discuss theoretical explanations for heterogeneous expectations. We then provide an overview of the empirical evidence …

expectations. For a contemporaneous-data monetary policy rule, the monetarist solution is unique and stationary under a passive …

uncertainty is closely related to the output growth uncertainty. In forming expectations, individual forecasters seem to behave …

find a higher average forecast accuracy of models that incorporate information on inflation expectations from the ECB’s SPF … inflation expectations are typically not large but significant in some periods. Both short- and long-term expectations provide … useful information. By contrast, incorporating expectations derived from financial market prices or those of firms and …

comprehensive real-time forecasting exercise for recessions in the US. Moreover, we propose a novel smooth transition modelling …

We present a comprehensive disaggregate approach for short-term forecasting economic activity in Germany by explicitly …

financial market expectations, we find that in February 2009 a period of monetary accommodation of three years would have been a …