Showing 1 - 10 of 106
We apply the boosting estimation method to investigate to what ex-tent and at what horizons macroeconomic time series have nonlinearpredictability coming from their own history. Our results indicate thatthe U.S. macroeconomic time series have more exploitable nonlinearpredictability than...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012503077
We present a comprehensive disaggregate approach for short-term forecasting economic activity in Germany by explicitly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011900715
There has been increased interest in the use of "big data" when it comes to forecasting macroeconomic time series such … as private consumption or unemployment. However, applications on forecasting GDP are rather rare. In this paper we … incorporate Google search data into a Bridge Equation Model, a version of which usually belongs to the suite of forecasting models …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011667109
customer transactions and daily realised electricity consumption in Germany are discussed for illustrative purposes. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013336397
capabilities, including code snippets, using daily births in France, hourly electricity consumption in Germany, and weekly initial …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014336194
The COVID-19 outbreak in 2020 has fostered in many countries the development of new weekly economic indices for the timely tracking of pandemic-related turmoils and other forms of rapid economic changes. Such indices often utilise information from daily and weekly economic time series that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015373330
We use the gradient boosting estimation technique and the ROC curveto non-parametrically measure and exploit the maximal predictive powerof leading indicators for the future state of the business cycle. We de-velop novel procedures for finding the best performing transformationsof individual...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012503078
Reverse stress tests are a relatively new stress test instrument that aims at finding exactly those scenarios that cause a bank to cross the frontier between survival and default. Afterward, the scenario which is most probable has to be identified. This paper sketches a framework for a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011334117
Currently, the methods used by producers of official statistics do not facilitate the seasonal and calendar adjustment of daily time series, even though an increasing number of series with daily observations are available. The aim of this paper is the development of a procedure to estimate and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011916897
This paper investigates the trade-off between timeliness and quality in nowcasting practices. This trade-off arises when the frequency of the variable to be nowcast, such as GDP, is quarterly, while that of the underlying panel data is monthly; and the latter contains both survey and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011846875