Showing 1 - 10 of 268
We study optimal monetary policy in an analytically tractable New Key-nesian DSGE-model with an emission externality. Empirically, emissions are strongly pro-cyclical and output in the flexible price equilibrium overreacts to productivity shocks, relative to the efficient allocation. At the same...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015324814
I derive the imperfect-common-knowledge Phillips curve under the assumption of Rotemberg pricing. The curve differs from the Calvo version in one important aspect. Expectations of future relative prices impact in ation.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011582888
This paper examines the reasons for the declining path of inflation since the 1970s. In particular, it focusses on the role of globalization - covering both changes in the global market structure and technical and structural developments in trade and production. In addition, the paper deals with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014551656
This paper evaluates the quality of survey forecasts, their accuracy and unbiasedness, and their overall consistency. The paper also tries to find out whether the relationships between economic variables are the same in survey data and in the actual data. In other words we analyze whether the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012503030
This paper studies professional forecasts on a micro level using three alternative data sets. The analysis is mainly based on the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasts for the euro area, but for comparison, Consensus Economics survey and the Survey of Professional Forecasts for the US are also...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012503031
It has been argued that one advantage of EMU in the EU has been an improvement in the credibility of monetary policy. This paper provides a new way of assessing the credibility of monetary policy by analyzing the dispersion of inflation-unemployment observations over time. In this way, we may...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012503057
Many central banks worldwide announce numerical inflation targets, typically ranging from zero to two percent in advanced economies and higher in developing countries. Historically, a significant gap existed between the inflation targets pursued by central banks and those recommended by academic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015205425
In many forward-looking macroeconomic models, such as the New Keynesian model, firms' expectations about the future play a key role in determining outcomes today. We examine this hypothesis using a novel panel dataset on firms actual and expected price changes collected by the Confederation of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011523616
This paper derives alternative measures of the short-run NAIRU (SRN) for the UK, the rate for unemployment at which inflation will neither increase nor decrease in the short-run. We estimate the NAIRU jointly with price equations by using the Kalman filter. Our work suggests that both structural...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011517881
This paper contrasts empirically four leading models of inflation dynamics - the accelerationist Phillips curve (APC), the new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC), the hybrid Phillips curve (HPC), and the sticky information Phillips curve (SIPC). We employ an encompassing Phillips curve...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012061223