forecasting macroeconomic key variables such as GDP. However, the DFM has some weaknesses. For nowcasting, the dynamic factor … on euro-area data show that the now- and forecasting performance of our new model is superior to that of the subset …

We present a comprehensive disaggregate approach for short-term forecasting economic activity in Germany by explicitly …

comprehensive real-time forecasting exercise for recessions in the US. Moreover, we propose a novel smooth transition modelling …

There has been increased interest in the use of "big data" when it comes to forecasting macroeconomic time series such … as private consumption or unemployment. However, applications on forecasting GDP are rather rare. In this paper we … incorporate Google search data into a Bridge Equation Model, a version of which usually belongs to the suite of forecasting models …

predictable. Moreover, using filtering techniques designed to process data subject to revisions, the real-time forecasting … aggregate GDP level appears to be good luck rather than good forecasting. …