Forecasts are useless whenever the forecast error variance fails to be smaller than the unconditional variance of the … forecast horizon h. Following Diebold and Mariano (DM, 1995) we propose a test based on the comparison of the mean …-squared error of the forecast and the sample variance. We show that the resulting test does not possess a limiting normal …

We present a comprehensive disaggregate approach for short-term forecasting economic activity in Germany by explicitly …-of-sample forecast evaluation setup, we are able to find informative forecasts for most of the underlying GDP components. We then show … first, that both approaches already yield informative aggregate forecasts for forecast horizons of up to 28 weeks and second …

optimal forecast. Yet, given the results for disaggregated variables, the averaging-out of biases and inefficiencies at the …

, necessary adjustments of pay-as-you-go pension systems to an ageing society affect aggregate savings. Taking Germany as an … data projections for OECD countries. It shows that demographic change in Germany is an important determinant of the current …

system. The cohort effect, by contrast, results in winners and losers in PAYG systems. Taking Germany as an example and using …

shrinkage) approaches in terms of their pseudo-real time out-of-sample forecast performance for GDP, various GDP components and … partial least squares and LASSO appear most promising. Also, the forecast potential of Google search terms vis-avis survey …