Similar Search Results

Elbers, Chris; Gunning, Jan Willem; Kinsey, Bill H. - 2002

simulation experiments(over a 20-year period) to quantify the importance of convergence, household fixed effectsand shocks. First …, we find powerful convergence. In the absence of shocks and withouthousehold fixed effects there is rapid growth over the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011326975

Growth and risk : methodology and micro evidence

Elbers, Chris; Gunning, Jan Willem; Kinsey, Bill H. - 2006 - Rev.

There has been a revival of interest in the effect of risk on economic growth. We quantify both ex ante and ex post effects of risk using a stochastic version of the Ramsey model. We develop a simulation-based econometric methodology which allows us to estimate the model in the structural form...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011334326

Forecasting value-at-risk under temporal and portfolio aggregation

Kole, Erik; Markwat, Thijs; Opschoor, Anne; Dijk, Dick van - 2015

We examine the impact of temporal and portfolio aggregation on the quality of Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasts over a … based on asset class, or into a single portfolio. We compare the impact of aggregation to that of choosing a model for the … that the degree of temporal aggregation is most important. Daily returns form the best basis for VaR forecasts. Modelling …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011431503

Forecasting co-volatilities via factor models with asymmetry and long memory in realized covariance

Asai, Manabu; McAleer, Michael - 2014

Modelling covariance structures is known to suffer from the curse of dimensionality. In order to avoid this problem for forecasting, the authors propose a new factor multivariate stochastic volatility (fMSV) model for realized covariance measures that accommodates asymmetry and long memory....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010259630

Forecasting volatility with Copula-based time series models

Sokolinskiy, Oleg; Dijk, Dick van - 2011

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009720755

A fractionally integrated wishart stochastic volatility model

Asai, Manabu; McAleer, Michael - 2013

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009724817

Long memory and level shifts : re-analyzing inflation rates

Bos, Charles S.; Franses, Philip Hans; Ooms, Marius - 1998

A key application of long memory time series models concerns inflation. Long memory implies that shocks have a long-lasting effect. It may however be that empirical evidence for long memory is caused by neglecting one or more level shifts. Since such level shifts are not unlikely for inflation,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011283465

Estimating and forecasting generalized fractional long memory stochastic volatility models

Peiris, Shelton; Asai, Manabu; McAleer, Michael - 2016

In recent years fractionally differenced processes have received a great deal of attention due to its flexibility in financial applications with long memory. This paper considers a class of models generated by Gegenbauer polynomials, incorporating the long memory in stochastic volatility (SV)...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011483824

Modeling and forecasting S&P 500 volatility : long memory, structural breaks and nonlinearity

Martens, Martin; Dijk, Dick van; Pooter, Michiel de - 2004

The sum of squared intraday returns provides an unbiased and almost error-free measure of ex-post volatility. In this paper we develop a nonlinear Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) model for realized volatility, which accommodates level shifts, day-of-the-week...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011335205

Realized stochastic volatility models with generalized Gegenbauer long memory

Asai, Manabu; McAleer, Michael; Peiris, Shelton - 2017

In recent years fractionally differenced processes have received a great deal of attention due to their flexibility in fi nancial applications with long memory. In this paper, we develop a new realized stochastic volatility (RSV) model with general Gegenbauer long memory (GGLM), which...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011772999