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Washington meets Wall Street : a closer examination of the presidential cycle puzzle

Kräussl, Roman; Lucas, André; Rijsbergen, D.; Sluis, … - 2009

the presidential cycle election (PCE) theory as an alternative explanation. The PCE theory states that incumbent parties … formulate seven different propositions relating to fiscal, monetary, tax, and political implications of PCE theory. We find no … statistically significant evidence confirming the PCE theory as a plausible explanation for the presidential cycle effect. The …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011377245

Modeling and forecasting S&P 500 volatility : long memory, structural breaks and nonlinearity

Martens, Martin; Dijk, Dick van; Pooter, Michiel de - 2004

The sum of squared intraday returns provides an unbiased and almost error-free measure of ex-post volatility. In this paper we develop a nonlinear Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) model for realized volatility, which accommodates level shifts, day-of-the-week...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011335205

Central clearing and asset prices

Menkveld, Albert J.; Pagnotta, Emiliano; Zoican, Marius A. - 2013

We investigate the effects of introducing a central clearing counterparty (CCP) on securities prices by adopting as an experimental construct the 2009 CCP reform in three Nordic markets. We find that, relative to other European economies, these countries experience market-adjusted equity returns...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010224773

Common risk factors in equity markets

Atanasov, Victoria - 2014 - This version: May 26, 2014

Empirical measures of world consumption growth risk have failed to rationalize the cross-section of country equity returns. We propose a new factor, termed "the global consumption factor", to explain the patterns in risk premiums on international equity markets. We identify this factor as the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010362976

Complex evolutionary systems in behavioral finance

Hommes, Cars H.; Wagener, Florian Oskar Ottokar - 2008

Traditional finance is built on the rationality paradigm. This chapter discusses simple models from an alternative approach in which financial markets are viewed as complex evolutionary systems. Agents are boundedly rational and base their investment decisions upon market forecasting heuristics....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011376458

Behavioral heterogeneity in stock prices

Boswijk, Herman Peter; Hommes, Cars H.; Manzan, Sebastiano - 2005

We estimate a dynamic asset pricing model characterized by heterogeneous boundedly rational agents. The fundamental value of the risky asset is publicly available to all agents, but they have different beliefs about the persistence of deviations of stock prices from the fundamental benchmark. An...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011343265

Booms, busts and behavioural heterogeneity in stock prices

Hommes, Cars H.; Veld, Daan in 't - 2015 - This draft: July 2015

We empirically evaluate a behavioural model with boundedly rational traders who disagree about the persistence of deviations from the fundamental stock price. Fundamentalist traders believe in mean-reversion, while chartists extrapolate trends. Agents gradually switch between the two rules,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011301214

Asset pricing in incomplete markets : valuing gas storage capacity

Zhao, Lin; Wijnbergen, Sweder van - 2015

We investigate the relationship between the gas spot market and the price of gas storage capacity. Contrary to the common belief, the auction prices for gas storage are mostly affected by the volatility of current market prices rather than by the winter-summer price differences. This paper...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011333083

Financial markets as nonlinear adaptive evolutionary systems

Hommes, Cars H. - 2000

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001554477

Simultaneous search and network efficiency

Gautier, Pieter; Holzner, Christian - 2011

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009720781