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The multivariate analysis of a panel of economic and financial time series with mixed frequencies is a challenging problem. The standard solution is to analyze the mix of monthly and quarterly time series jointly by means of a multivariate dynamic model with a monthly time index: artificial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010391543
in its ability to accurately capture clusters and preserve or enhance forecasting accuracy. For a high …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012315409
Cyclicality in the losses of bank loans is important for bank risk management. Because loans have a different risk profile than bonds, evidence of cyclicality in bond losses need not apply to loans. Based on unique data we show that the default rate and loss given default of bank loans share a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010515860
We introduce a dynamic network model with probabilistic link functions that depend on stochastically time-varying parameters. We adopt the widely used blockmodel framework and allow the high-dimensional vector of link probabilities to be a function of a low-dimensional set of dynamic factors....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011566388
-noise dynamic factor models, commonly used in macroeconomic forecasting and nowcasting. We show analytically and in Monte Carlo …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014249849
trends in ethane and modeling the inter-annual variability, this paper aims at forecasting the atmospheric ethane burden … complicates the analysis and limits the availability of appropriate forecasting methods. In this paper, we propose five distinct …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015373851
We propose an observation-driven dynamic common factor model for missing value imputation in high-dimensional panel data. The model exploits both serial and cross-sectional information in the data and can easily cope with time-variation in conditional means and variances, as well as with either...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015373862
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009765836
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explores various specifications of decompositions and various forecasting experiments. The result from these horse-races is … for richer forecasting specifications, the paper shows, using Bayesian model averaging techniques (BMA), that the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011378362