Showing 1 - 10 of 4,215
This study examines short-, medium-, and long-run price expectations in housing markets. We derive and test six … expectations exhibit mean reversion in the long-run. Moreover, we do not find evidence for biases related to individual housing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012819576
In this paper, we build a new test of rational expectations based on the marginal distributions of realizations and subjective beliefs. This test is widely applicable, including in the common situation where realizations and beliefs are observed in two different datasets that cannot be matched....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011951089
is as great as when training is absent. -- asset market experiment ; price bubbles ; common knowledge of rationality …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009631461
We study biased survival expectations across two domains and examine whether such biased expectations influence health and financial behaviors. Combining individual-level longitudinal data, retrospective, and end of life data from several European countries for more than a decade, we estimate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012703131
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013520573
Investment and all other economic actions depend on 'subjective' expectations. The problem is how to construct a theory … economics of F.A.Hayek, Koppl gives us such a theory. This includes a theory of 'Big Players', demonstrating that discretionary … economic theory, and connects with many other schools of economics including New Institutional Economics, Constitutional …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012054265
We study belief updating about relative performance in an ego-relevant task. Manipulating the perceived ego-relevance of the task, we show that subjects update their beliefs optimistically because they derive direct utility flows from holding positive beliefs. This finding provides a behavioral...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013433247
While stock market expectations are among the most important primitives of portfolio choice models, their measurement has proved challenging for some respondents. We argue that the magnitude of measurement error in subjective expectations can be used as an indicator of the degree to which...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010414230
An important advance in the study of reference-dependent preferences is the discipline provided by coherent accounts of reference point formation. Kőszegi and Rabin (2006) provide such discipline by positing a reference point grounded in rational expectations. We examine the predictions of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010436164
outcomes in housing and labor markets. We exploit variation in locally experienced house prices to show that individuals …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011376179