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An empirical growth model for major oil exporters

Esfahani, Hadi Salehi; Mohaddes, Kamiar; Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2012

This paper develops a long-run growth model for a major oil exporting economy and derives conditions under which oil revenues are likely to have a lasting impact. This approach contrasts with the standard literature on the "Dutch disease" and the "resource curse", which primarily focuses on...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009535794

Gravity predictions of international migration flows

Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús; López Molina, Gonzalo - 2024

has resulted in an improved understanding of the determinants of migration flows through the estimation of theory …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015163010

Should contact bans be lifted in Germany? : a quantitative prediction of its effects

Donsimoni, Jean Roch; Glawion, René; Plachter, Bodo; … - 2020

Many countries consider the lifting of restrictions of social contacts (RSC). We quantify the effects of RSC for Germany. We initially employ a purely statistical approach to predicting prevalence of COVID19 if RSC were upheld after April 20. We employ these findings and feed them into our...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012202358

Oil exports and the Iranian economy

Esfahani, Hadi Salehi; Mohaddes, Kamiar; Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2009

This paper develops a long run growth model for a major oil exporting economy and derives conditions under which oil revenues are likely to have a lasting impact. This approach contrasts with the standard literature on the "Dutch disease" and the "resource curse", which primarily focus on short...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003909263

Prediction markets in theory and practice

Wolfers, Justin (contributor); Zitzewitz, Eric (contributor) - 2006

Prediction Markets, sometimes referred to as "information markets", "idea futures" or "event futures", are markets where participants trade contracts whose payoffs are tied to a future event, thereby yielding prices that can be interpreted as market-aggregated forecasts. This article summarizes...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003289880

On the estimation and forecasting of international migration : how relevant is heterogeneity across countries?

Brücker, Herbert (contributor); … - 2005

This paper performs a comparative analysis of estimation as well as of out-of-sample forecasting results of more than … period 1967-2001. Our results suggest that the choice of an estimation procedure has a substantial impact on the parameter … estimator exhibit the superior forecast performance, (iii) the fixed effects estimators outperform GMM and other instrumental …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003053134

Macroeconomic expectations in a war

Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Vasudevan, Vittal - 2025

Using a short- and long-term macroeconomic forecasts, we estimate the cost of the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine for countries in Eastern Europe, Caucasus, and Central Asia. Shortly after the Russian attack, the projected cost (cumulative over six years) stood at $2.44 trillion for the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015427436

Using machine learning to create an early warning system for welfare recipients

Sansone, Dario; Zhu, Anna - 2021

Using high-quality nation-wide social security data combined with machine learning tools, we develop predictive models of income support receipt intensities for any payment enrolee in the Australian social security system between 2014 and 2018. We show that off-the-shelf machine learning...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012518195

The value of publicly available, textual and non-textual information for startup performance prediction

Kaiser, Ulrich; Kuhn, Johan M. - 2020

startup characteristics to forecast the performance of newly started enterprises over a five years' time horizon. The … accuracy are low. To forecast the two innovation-related performance outcomes well, we only need to include a set of variables …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012180542

Iassopack : model selection and prediction with regularized regression in stata

Ahrens, Achim; Hansen, Christian Bailey; Schaffer, Mark E. - 2019

, square-root lasso, elastic net, ridge regression, adaptive lasso and post-estimation OLS. The methods are suitable for the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011972491