Die Frage nach der Steuerbarkeit der Geldmenge wird in empirischen Arbeiten üblicherweise auf die Frage nach der Vorhersagbarkeit von Geldangebotsmultiplikatoren reduziert. In dieser Arbeit wird untersucht, wie sinnvoll diese Herangehensweise bei der empirischen Untersuchung des...

Diese Arbeit untersucht die empirische Relevanz des Monetären Modells fiir die Erklärung des DM / Dollar Wechselkurses. Dabei zeigt sich, daß der in der neueren empirischen Literatur übliche Testansatz (reduced form approach) zu unplausiblen Parameterrestriktionen und zu ineffizienten...

To assess the predictive content of the interest rate term spread for future economic growth, we distinguish short-run from long-run predictability by using two different approaches. First, following Dufour and Renault (1998) a test procedure is proposed to test for causality at different...

In this paper a parametric framework for stimation and inference in cointegrated panel data models is considered that is based on a cointegrated VAR(p) model. A convenient two-step estimator is uggested where in the first step all individual specific parameters are estimated, whereas in the...

Zur Beurteilung und Prognose der konjunkturellen Entwicklung werden in Deutsehland eine Reihe unterschiedlicher Indikatoren verwendet. In dieser Studie werden graphische und ökonometrische Verfahren angewandt, um die Prognosequalität der rneist beachteten Konjunkturindikatoren in Dentschland...

In this note the unobserved component approach underlying the software package SEATS is compared with the Beveridge-Nelson type of decomposition for seasonal time series. The main strength of the SEATS approach lies in the appealing model formulation and the careful specification and adjustment...

We show in the paper that the decomposition proposed by Beveridge and Nelson (1981) for models that are integrated of order one can be generalized to seasonal Arima models by means of a partial fraction decomposition. Two equivalent algorithms are proposed to optimally (in the mean squared...

A test procedure based on ranks is suggested to test for nonlinear cointegration. For two (or more) time series it is assumed that there exist monotonic transformations such that the normalised series can asymptotically be represented by independent Brownian motions. Rank test procedures based...

In this paper we characterize what has sometimes been referred to in the literature as instantaneous causality, by examining the consequences of temporal aggregation in (possibly) Granger causal systems of variables. Our approach is to compare the concept of contemporaneous correlation due to...