This paper addresses the question of macroeconomic integration in the Asian Pacific region. Economically, the analysis is based on the notions of stochastic long-run convergence and business cycle coherence. The econometric procedure consists of tests for cointegration, the examination of vector...

The present paper embarks on an analysis of interactions between the US and Euroland in the capital, foreign exchange, money and stock markets from 1994 until 2006. Estimating multivariate EGARCH processes for the structural financial innovations determines causality-in-variance effects and...

The subject of this paper tackles macroeconomic integration of the South-East Asian countries South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan. Economically, the analysis is based on notions of stochastic long-run convergence and business cycle synchrony in the GDPs. According tests for cointegration and...

This paper demonstrates effects of economic convergence processes on the foreign exchange behaviour in a monetary modelling approach. Since the exchange rate represents the relative price of two currencies, commonness of stochastic trends between the fundamental determinants of supply and demand...

This paper embarks to analyse the role of exports and investment supposed to be major sources of economic growth in Asia Pacific. Therefore at first, the cointegration properties of exports, capital formation and GDP are examined in vector error correction models (VECMs). The results confirm the...

We give an explicit PDE characterization for the solution of the problemof maximizing the utility of both terminal wealth and intertemporal consumption under model uncertainty. The underlying market model consists of a risky asset, whose volatility and long-term trend are driven by an external...

The uniqueness of bounded local equilibria under interest rate rules is analyzed in a model with sticky information à la Mankiw and Reis (2002). The main results are tighter bounds on monetary policy than in sticky-price models, irrelevance ofthe degree of output-gap targeting for determinacy,...

We introduce a Nelson-Siegel type interest rate term structure model with the underlying yield factors following autoregressive processes revealing time-varying stochastic volatility. The factor volatilities capture risk inherent to the term structure and are associated with the time-varying...

We present a new way to model age-specific demographic variables with the example of age-specific mortality in the U.S., building on the Lee-Carter approach and extendingit in several dimensions. We incorporate covariates and model their dynamics jointly with the latent variables underlying...

Motivated by the recurrent Neural Networks, this paper proposes a recurrent Support Vector Regression (SVR) procedure to forecast nonlinear ARMA model based simulated data and real data of financial returns. The forecasting ability of the recurrent SVR is compared with three competing methods,...