Following the discontinuation of the official statistics on industrial new orders by Eurostat in mid-2012, this paper introduces the ECB indicator on euro area industrial new orders, which aims to fill the new statistical gaps for euro area total new orders as well as for various breakdowns....

This paper analyses the challenges that high public debt and ageing populations pose to medium-term growth. First, macroeconometric model simulations suggest that medium-term growth can benefit from credible fiscal consolidation, partly through reductions in sovereign risk premia. Second, a...

Following the discontinuation of the official statistics on industrial new orders by Eurostat in mid-2012, this paper introduces the ECB indicator on euro area industrial new orders, which aims to fill the new statistical gaps for euro area total new orders as well as for various breakdowns....

This paper analyses the challenges that high public debt and ageing populations pose to medium-term growth. First, macroeconometric model simulations suggest that medium-term growth can benefit from credible fiscal consolidation, partly through reductions in sovereign risk premia. Second, a...

This paper looks back on the 25-year history of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). Since its launch in the first quarter of 1999, it has served as an important input for policymaking and analysis, especially over the past five years, where the euro area has, following a period of...

In light of recent global economic and geopolitical shocks threatening trade openness, this report aims to shed light on geoeconomic fragmentation and develops a rich set of new tools to assess its economic effects and implications for central banks. The report shows that, although global trade...

If the responses of wages - both private and public - and of pensions to an increase in inflation lead to second-round effects, this can make an inflationary shock more persistent, especially in the presence of automatic wage and pension indexation. This occasional paper presents an overview of...

This paper analyses the distributional impact of high consumer inflation in the euro area and government measures to compensate households in 2022. The study uses the tax-benefit microsimulation model for the European Union (EUROMOD) with microdata as the input - EU statistics on income and...

This report updates and extends earlier assessments of quantitative inflation perceptions and expectations of consumers in the euro area and the EU using an anonymised micro data set collected by the European Commission in the context of the Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer...

Well-functioning economic structures are key for resilient and prospering euro area economies. The global financial and sovereign debt crises exposed the limited resilience of the euro area's economic structures. Economic growth was masking underlying weaknesses in several euro area countries....