D'Agostino, Antonello; Modugno, Michele; Osbat, Chiara - 2016
We propose a model for analyzing euro area trade based on the interaction between macroeconomic and trade variables …. First, we show that macroeconomic variables are necessary to generate accurate short-term trade forecasts; this result can … be explained by the high correlation between trade and macroeconomic variables, with the latter being released in a more …