alternative monetary rules on unemployment dynamics in the euro area and the US. We use the inflation forecasts of 8 competing …This paper explores the role that inflation forecasts play in the uncertainty surrounding the estimated effects of … relative to the different inflation models under two rules. The results suggest that model uncertainty can be a serious issue …

This paper examines the usefulness of the Okun relationship as a “rule of thumb” for predicting changes in unemployment … differential reaction of unemployment to changes in the various expenditure components of GDP - significantly enhances the capacity … of the Okun relationship (in comparison to the aggregate “rule of thumb”) for predicting movements in unemployment. The …

Over the last two centuries, the cross-spectral coherence between either narrow or broad money growth and inflation at … other countries, thus implying that the fraction of inflation’s long-run variation explained by long-run money growth has … correspondence with the inflationary outbursts associated with World War I and the Great Inflation–but not World War II …

We use a Bayesian time-varying parameters structural VAR with stochastic volatility for GDP deflator inflation, real … Inflation was due, to a dominant extent, to large demand non-policy shocks, and to a lesser extent–especially in 1973 and 1979 … difference in terms of inflation and output growth outcomes; and (3)mechanically ‘bringing the Monetary Policy Committee vback in …

inflation series of the euro area CPI translates into the slow adjustment of euro area aggregate inflation. We first estimate a … dynamic factor model for 404 inflation sub-indices of the euro area CPI. This allows to decompose the dynamics of inflation … overall variance of the 404 disaggregate inflation series, is the main driver of aggregate dynamics. In addition, the …

Over the last two centuries, the coherence between either narrow or broad money growth and inflation at zero has … that the fraction of inflation's long-run variation explained by long-run money growth has been very high and relatively … outbursts associated with World War I and the Great Inflation - but not World War II - whereas following the disinflation of the …

We use a Bayesian time-varying parameters structural VAR with stochastic volatility for GDP deflator inflation, real … Inflation was due, to a dominant extent, to large demand non-policy shocks, and to a lesser extent - especially in 1973 and 1979 … difference in terms of inflation and output growth outcomes; and (3) mechanically 'bringing the Monetary Policy Committee back in …