This study develops a new monthly euro Area‐wide Leading Indicator (ALI) for the euro area business cycle. It derives … ahead and satisfactory predictors by up to 2 years ahead. A real‐time analysis for predicting the euro business cycle during …

The paper discusses some widely used methods for estimating output gaps based on aggregated datafor the Euro … methods commonly used have only limited information content for inflation forecasting in the Euro-zone. Conclusions for … die Euro-Zone. Obwohl die Methoden einige wichtige gemeinsame Eigenschaften aufweisen, zeigen auch sie erhebliche …

This paper addresses the issues of identification and dating of the Euro-zone business cycle by using the Markov … growth in the Euro-zone are identified by fitting Markov-switching models to aggregated and single-country Euro-zone real GDP … the smoothed regime probabilities from the Markov-switching models the Euro-zone business cycle is dated and recessions …

This paper investigates the Euro-area business cycle using a multivariate autoregressive time series model with … trend and cyclical GDP, respectively. The identification allows for a historical decomposition of Euro-area GDP into trend … stochastic trend of Euro-area GDP has considerable variability. Der Beitrag untersucht den Konjunkturzyklus im Euroraum unter …

turning points in the Euro-zone using the Neftçi's approach. The output is a probability index for a forthcoming economic …

Most of the Euro-zone economic short-term indicators are computed through aggregation from Member States data. The … given in the paper. An application to the Euro-zone GDP is presented. The same aggregation problem encountered in the case … widely used in the literature, we extracted the cycle indicator for the Euro-zone employing the Baxter-King filter to data …