are consistent with the behavior of inflation. We label these deviations the output gap. In order to pin-down the features … of the model, we evaluate the accuracy of real-time inflation forecasts from different model specifications. The version … that forecasts inflation best implies that after the 2011 sovereign debt crisis the output gap in the euro area has been …

We develop a theoretical model that features a business cycle-dependent relation between output, price inflation and … inflation expectations, augmenting the model by Svensson (1997) with a nonlinear Phillips curve that reflects the rationale … pronounced convex relationship between inflation and the output gap, meaning that the co-efficient in the Phillips curve on the …

This paper analyses the distribution of long-term inflation expectations in the euro area using individual density …

GDP-inflation cycles by adopting a trend-cycle decomposition model which allows the trend to be either stochastic or …-in (GDP-to-inflation) and cross-country (CEECs vs. euro area) levels. Allowing for different degrees of cyclical similarity …, we find that a similar inflation vs. GDP cycle is not rejected only for Poland, Lithuania, Romania and Estonia (with …