This paper tests whether the proposition that globalisation has led to greater sensitivity of domestic inflation to the global output gap (the quot;global output gap hypothesisquot;) holds for the euro area. The empirical analysis uses quarterly data over the period 1979-2003. Measures of the...

This paper analyses the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic shock on small open economies in a monetary union with an application to the euro area. Accounting for a high degree of openness and a strong dependence on intra and extra union trade, we focus on the size and the direction of...

This paper studies factors behind inflation dynamics in the euro area, the UK and the US. It introduces a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) framework with sign restrictions to study the effects of fundamental macroeconomic shocks on inflation in the three economies. The FAVAR model...

The objective of this paper is to examine the main features of optimal monetary policy cooperation within a micro-founded macroeconometric frame-work. First, using Bayesian techniques, we estimate a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for the United States (US) and...

The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates more vigorously in the recent recession than the European Central Bank did. By comparison with the Fed, the ECB followed a more measured course of action. We use an estimated dynamic general equilibrium model with financial frictions to show that...

In this paper we report results on inflation persistence using 79 inflation series covering the EU countries, the euro area and the US for five different inflation variables. The picture that emerges is one of moderate inflation persistence across the board. In particular we find euro area...

For most academics and policy makers, the depth of the 2007-09 financial crisis, its longevity and its impacts on the real economy resulted from an erosion of confidence. This paper proposes to assess empirically the link between consumer sentiment and consumption expenditures for the United...

The survey based monthly US ISM production index and Eurozone manufacturing PMI output index provide early information on industrial output growth before the release of the official industrial production index. I use the Carlson and Parkin probability method to construct monthly growth estimates...