This paper analyzes the effects of several policy instruments for mitigating financial bubbles generated in the banking sector. We augment a New Keynesian macroeconomic framework by endogenizing boundedly-rational expectations on asset values of loan portfolios, allow for interbank trading and...

I show that the detrending of financial variables with the Hodrick and Prescott (1981, 1997) (HP) and band-pass filters leads to spurious cycles. I find that distortions become especially severe when considering medium-term cycles, i.e., cycles that exceed the duration of regular business...

We consider simple methods to improve the growth nowcasts and forecasts obtained by mixed frequency MIDAS and UMIDAS models with a variety of indicators during the Covid-19 crisis and recovery period, such as combining forecasts across various specifications for the same model and/or across...

Focusing on repo specialness premia, using ISIN-specific transaction-by-transaction data of one-day maturity repos, we document a gradual shift from cash- to securities-driven transactions in euro area repo markets over the period 2010-2018. Compared to earlier studies focusing only on specific...

This paper studies the relationship between the business cycle and financial intermediation in the euro area. We establish stylized facts and study their stability during the global financial crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis. Long-term interest rates have been exceptionally high and...

Should monetary policy lean against financial stability risks? This has been a subject of fierce debate over the last decades. We contribute to the debate about “leaning against the wind” (LAW) along three lines. First, we evaluate the cost and benefits of LAW using the Svensson (2017)...

This paper analyses the distribution of long-term inflation expectations in the euro area using individual density forecasts from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. We exploit the panel dimension in this dataset to examine whether this distribution became less stable following the Great...

The primary driver of commercial bank failures during the Great Recession was exposure to the real estate sector, not aggregate funding strains. The main "toxic" exposure was credit to non-household real estate borrowers, not traditional home mortgages or agency-issued MBS. Private-label MBS...

This paper exploits a unique cross-country, firm-level survey to study the responses of European firms to the sharp demand and credit contraction triggered by the global Great Recession of 2009. The analysis reveals that cost reduction — particularly labour cost reduction through the...

In this paper we investigate the effects of uncertainty shocks on economic activity in the euro area by using a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model with heterogenous agents and a stylized banking sector. We show that frictions in credit supply amplify the effects of uncertainty...