The post-crisis environment has posed important challenges to standard forecasting models. In this paper, we exploit several combinations of a large-scale DSGE structural model with standard reduced-form methods such as (B)VAR (i.e. DSGE-VAR and Augmented-(B)VARDSGE methods) and assess their use...

This paper presents a framework for analysing the evolution of the structural government deficit estimated using the official EU methodology relevant for the Stability and Growth Pact. The focus of our framework lies in the analysis of the main driving forces of changes in estimated structural...

In this paper we revisit one of the “missing links” between budget balances and the economic cycle, namely the impact of asset prices on fiscal revenues. We estimate revenue elasticities with respect to equity and real estate price indices for 16 OECD countries, as well as for a synthetic...

In recent years, government revenues in many EU countries experienced significant and erratic changes, which, a priori, could not be fully explained by macroeconomic developments or by discretionary fiscal policy measures. We investigate this issue by estimating “unexplained” changes in tax...

In recent years, government revenues in many EU countries experienced significant and erratic changes, which, a priori, could not be fully explained by macroeconomic developments or by discretionary fiscal policy measures. We investigate this issue by estimating “unexplained” changes in tax...

The post-crisis environment has posed important challenges to standard forecasting models. In this paper, we exploit several combinations of a large-scale DSGE structural model with standard reduced-form methods such as (B)VAR (i.e. DSGE-VAR and Augmented-(B)VARDSGE methods) and assess their use...

In this paper we revisit one of the quot;missing linksquot; between budget balances and the economic cycle, namely the impact of asset prices on fiscal revenues. We estimate revenue elasticities with respect to equity and real estate price indices for 16 OECD countries, as well as for a...

This paper presents a framework for analysing the evolution of the structural government deficit estimated using the official EU methodology relevant for the Stability and Growth Pact. The focus of our framework lies in the analysis of the main driving forces of changes in estimated structural...