inflation. Moreover, the results suggest that the importance of global inflation in forecasting domestic inflation has its roots …

performs favourably compared to the Eurosystem/ECB staff macroeconomic projections, (iv) forecasting performance deteriorates …

’s forecasting performance relative to a number of benchmarks, including a Bayesian VAR. We finally consider several applications to … illustrate the potential contributions the NAWM can make to forecasting and policy analysis. …

In this paper we review the methodology of forecasting with log-linearised DSGE models using Bayesian methods. We focus … matrix of h-step ahead forecasts. In the empirical analysis, we examine the forecasting performance of the New Area … scope for improving the NAWM’s forecasting performance. For example, the model is not able to explain the moderation in wage …

We forecast recession probabilities for the United States, Germany and Japan. The predictions are based on the widely … short-term interest rate, stock returns or corporate bond spreads. The forecasting performance is very good for the United … reached for the United States, the ProbVAR forecasts are slightly worse for Germany, but considerably inferior for Japan. …

the beginning of 2018. They also have performed well in forecasting the direction of inflation. In terms of the …

We forecast recession probabilities for the United States, Germany and Japan. The predictions are based on the widely … short-term interest rate, stock returns or corporate bond spreads. The forecasting performance is very good for the United … reached for the United States, the ProbVAR forecasts are slightly worse for Germany, but considerably inferior for Japan …