of models to include Taylor rule fundamentals, yield curve factors, and incorporate shadow rates and risk and liquidity … correction and first-difference specifications. We examine model performance at various forecast horizons (1 quarter, 4 quarters …

there is a clear trade-off between storytelling and forecast accuracy. The PPP model offers little economic insights, but … has good predictive power. The BEER framework, which links exchange rates to fundamentals, does not deliver forecasts of … terms. Sensitivity analysis confirms that changing the composition of fundamentals in the BEER model or modifying key …

random walk process. Large departures from fundamentals, in contrast, imply mean-reverting behavior toward fundamentals …

call a post-crisis bias. This bias arises when no distinction is made between tranquil periods, when economic fundamentals … ability to forecast financial crises. The empirical results reveal that, for a set of 32 open emerging markets from 1993 till …

of models to include Taylor rule fundamentals, yield curve factors, and incorporate shadow rates and risk and liquidity … correction and first-difference specifications. We examine model performance at various forecast horizons (1 quarter, 4 quarters …

40 advanced and emerging countries, we analyse the sensitivity of yields to country specific fundamentals interacted with …

during crises depends on the tail properties of the fundamentals' distributions. We denote crisis linkages as either strong … crisis levels, the probability that the other currency breaks down as well vanishes asymptotically if the fundamentals … fundamentals. …

This paper analyses the link between economic fundamentals and exchange rates by investigating the importance of real …

role for macroeconomic fundamentals, policy actions and the public debate by policy makers. It finds that the euro exchange … rate mainly danced to its own tune, with a particularly low explanatory power for macroeconomic fundamentals. Among the few …