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Dissecting saving dynamics: measuring wealth, precautionary and credit effects

Carroll, Christopher; Slacalek, Jiri; Sommer, Martin - 2012

We argue that the U.S. personal saving rate's long stability (from the 1960s through the early 1980s), subsequent … stock' model of optimal consumption in the presence of labor income uncertainty and credit constraints. Saving in the model … saving rate's long-term decline, while fluctuations in net wealth and uncertainty capture the bulk of the business …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605519

Dissecting Saving Dynamics : Measuring Wealth, Precautionary and Credit Effects

Carroll, Chris - 2019

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012905525

Growth-and-risk trade-off

Gadea, María Dolores; Laeven, Luc; Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel - 2020

We study the effects of credit over the business cycle, distinguishing between expansions and contractions. We find that there is a growth and risk trade-off in the pace of credit growth over the business cycle. While rapid credit growth tends to be followed by deeper recessions, we also find...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012422059

Changing patterns of risk-sharing channels in the United States and the euro area

Cimadomo, Jacopo; Giuliodori, Massimo; Lengyel, Andras; … - 2023

In this paper, we assess how risk-sharing channels have evolved over time in the United States and the Euro Area, and whether they have operated as "complements" or "substitutes". In particular, we focus on the capital channel (income from cross-border ownership of productive assets), the credit...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014543684

Semi-structural credit gap estimation

Lang, Jan Hannes; Welz, Peter - 2018

yield long credit cycles that last between 15 and 25 years with amplitudes of around 20%. The early warning properties for …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012142038

Cyclical drivers of euro area consumption: What can we learn from durable goods?

Casalis, André; Krustev, Georgi - 2020

We study the cyclical dynamics of consumption in the euro area (EA) and the large EA countries by distinguishing durable from nondurable expenditures. We adopt a theoretical partial equilibrium framework to justify the identification strategy of our empirical model, a time-varying parameter...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012422048

Modeling the consumption response to the CARES Act

Carroll, Chris; Crawley, Edmund S.; Slacalek, Jirka; … - 2020

To predict the effects of the 2020 U.S. "CARES" act on consumption, we extend a model that matches responses of households to past consumption stimulus packages. The extension allows us to account for two novel features of the coronavirus crisis. First, during the lockdown, many types of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012422103

On-the-job search and the cyclical dynamics of the labor market

Krause, Michael U.; Lubik, Thomas A. - 2007

We show how on-the-job search and the propagation of shocks to the economy are intricately linked. Rising search by employed workers in a boom amplifies the incentives of firms to post vacancies. In turn, more vacancies increases job search. By keeping job creation costs low for firms,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604825

Sticky expectations and consumption dynamics

Carroll, Christopher D.; Crawley, Edmund; Slacalek, Jiri; … - 2018

Macroeconomic models often invoke consumption "habits" to explain the substantial persistence of macroeconomic consumption growth. But a large literature has found no evidence of habits in the microeconomic datasets that measure the behavior of individual households. We show that the apparent...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011916856

Wealth effects in the euro area

Guerrieri, Cinzia; Mendicino, Caterina - 2018

How sizable is the wealth effect on consumption in euro area countries? To address this question, we use newly available harmonized euro area wealth data and the methodology in Carroll et al. (2011b). We find that the marginal propensity to consume out of total wealth averaged across the largest...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011916861