short-term interest rate, stock returns or corporate bond spreads. The forecasting performance is very good for the United …-post classification of recessions and non-recessions 95% of the time for the one-quarter forecast horizon and 87% of the time for the four …

the beginning of 2018. They also have performed well in forecasting the direction of inflation. In terms of the …

’s forecasting performance relative to a number of benchmarks, including a Bayesian VAR. We finally consider several applications to … illustrate the potential contributions the NAWM can make to forecasting and policy analysis. …

In this paper we review the methodology of forecasting with log-linearised DSGE models using Bayesian methods. We focus … matrix of h-step ahead forecasts. In the empirical analysis, we examine the forecasting performance of the New Area … scope for improving the NAWM’s forecasting performance. For example, the model is not able to explain the moderation in wage …

short-term interest rate, stock returns or corporate bond spreads. The forecasting performance is very good for the United …-post classification of recessions and non-recessions 95% of the time for the one-quarter forecast horizon and 87% of the time for the four …

-run predictions of a wide class of theoretical models yields substantial improvements in the forecasting performance. …

subjective choices in the setting of the prior. Moreover, it performs very well both in terms of out-of-sample forecasting …

distribution. As an empirical illustration, we use euro area data and compare the forecasting performance of the New Area …