This paper proposes a methodology to nowcast and forecast inflation using data with sampling frequency higher than … accurate estimates of inflation for the current and followings months. In particular, this paper uses the Weekly Oil Bulletin …

-country data set and a broad array of variables, in order to test the inflation forecasting performance of extracted factors at the … indicators of inflation, but the comparative advantage of the factors is less clear. Nevertheless, alternative indicators such as …

This paper shows that inflation in industrialized countries is largely a global phenomenon. First, inflations of (22 … associated to Global Inflation is not only due to the trend components of inflation (up from 1960 to 1980 and down thereafter …) but also to fluctuations at business cycle frequencies. Second, Global Inflation is, consistently with standard models of …

, consumption, investment and unemployment) has a distinct dynamic from disagreement about nominal variables (inflation and interest … nominal series. Country-by-country regressions for inflation and interest rates reveal that both the level of disagreement and …

near-term economic outlook, characterised by persistently low nominal interest rates and inflation, and in a lasting low …

We document the impact of COVID-19 on frequently employed time series models, with a focus on euro area inflation. We …

breaks in the performance of most simple Phillips curves. Euro area inflation was particularly hard to forecast in the run … practitioners, we find that: (i) the key type of time variation to consider is an inflation trend; (ii) a simple filter-based output …

find a higher average forecast accuracy of models that incorporate information on inflation expectations from the ECB's SPF … inflation expectations are typically not large but significant in some periods. Both short- and long-term expectations provide … (not always for the countries). The analysis is undertaken for headline inflation and inflation excluding energy and food …

Density forecasts of euro area inflation are a fundamental input for a medium-term oriented central bank, such as the … euro area (headline and core) inflation and a large set of determinants, is competitive with state-of-the-art linear … ECB point inflation forecasts, displaying similar deviations from "linearity". Given that the ECB modelling toolbox is …

situation poses to price stability. We propose to regard the central banker as a risk manager who aims to contain inflation …