in gravity equations. With this enhancement, our results suggest that FTAs increase trade by 54% after ten years. We also …

. Building on earlier work by Villani (2005b), where the posterior probability of the cointegration rank can be calculated …The paper considers a Bayesian approach to the cointegrated VAR model with a uniform prior on the cointegration space … conditional on the lag order, the current paper also makes it possible to compute the joint posterior probability of these two …

We develop a time-varying transition probabilities Markov Switching model in which inflation is characterised by two … regimes (high and low inflation). Using Bayesian techniques, we apply the model to the euro area, Germany, the US, the UK and … switches between inflation regimes. Thus money growth provides an important early warning indicator for risks to price …

for future inflation for the cross section of New EU Member States. This paper provides stylized facts on monetary versus … non-monetary (economic and fiscal) determinants of inflation in these countries as well as formal econometric evidence on … predicting inflation at longer (3-year) horizons …

indicators in predicting euro area HICP inflation out-of-sample over the period first quarter 1999 till third quarter 2006 …

-neutrality, I find that money supply shocks are less effective at stimulating inflation in recessions than in expansions. In terms of … quantitative magnitude, the impact effect on inflation of a money supply shock is about half as large during recessions than during …

Over the last two centuries, the coherence between either narrow or broad money growth and inflation at zero has … that the fraction of inflation's long-run variation explained by long-run money growth has been very high and relatively … outbursts associated with World War I and the Great Inflation - but not World War II - whereas following the disinflation of the …