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consumption and real GDP. In line with BNW, we find that confidence shocks explain a large share of the variance in real economic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605714
In this paper, we analyse the effects of a shock to global financial uncertainty and risk aversion on real economic activity. To this end, we extract a global factor, which explains approximately 40% of the variance of about 1000 risky asset returns from around the world. We then study how...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012909852
This paper shows that, controlling for standard determinants of net external positions, financially-remote countries exhibit more positive net external positions. This finding is found to be stronger for less advanced countries, hinting at external funding problems for more remote countries....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013127570
Drawing on a large sample of countries, this paper explores whether closer economic ties between countries foster business cycle synchronisation and disentangles the role of the various channels, including trade and financial linkages as well as the similarity in sectoral specialisation....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013128036
This paper investigates the role of domestic and external factors in explaining business cycle and international trade developments in fifteen emerging market economies. Results from sign restricted VARs show that developments in real output, inflation, real exchange rates and international...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012777677
This paper contributes to the debate on the macroeconomic effectiveness of expansionary non-standard monetary policy measures in a regulated banking environment. Based on an estimated DSGE model, we explore the interactions between central bank asset purchases and bank capital-based financial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012142081
Quantifying the effects of trade policy in the age of "global value chains" (GVCs) requires an enhanced analytical framework that takes the observed international input-output relations in due account. However, existing quantitative general equilibrium models generally assume that industry-level...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012389563
Beside large capital flows, euro area financial centres feature important and growing trade surpluses. We investigate the composition of their gross trade flows and disentangle (i) domestic and foreign production content that is (ii) directly traded with final absorbing economies or embedded in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012422168
We study exchange rate pass-through (ERPT), i.e., the impact of exchange rate movements on inflation, focusing on euro area import prices at a sectorally disaggregated level. Our estimation strategy is based on VAR-X models, thus incorporating both endogenous and exogenous explanatory variables....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012819048
The enlargement of the European monetary union to include the accession countries (ACs) will not lead to higher average inflation in the enlarged euro area, but only to inflation redistribution across countries if continuity of the monetary policy framework is preserved. In the short term,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604262