from an aggregation of country-specific forecasts. Factor models in particular prove rather accurate, where the factors …

forecasts (bottom-up approaches). Overall, all methods perform better than a simple benchmark for short horizons (up to three … out-perform bottom-up ones for real variables, but not for prices. Finally, when country-specific forecasts are adjusted … to match direct forecasts at the aggregate levels (top-down approaches), the forecast accuracy is neither improved nor …

decomposition, confidence bands, alternative forecasts, and heatmaps. These multiple outputs aim at opening the "black box" often …

, but surveys and data collection methods, such as confidence indices and consensus forecasts, offer some solutions …

point and density forecasts of ten major commodity indices viz-a-viz constant-coefficient mo dels. Improvements in point …