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-of-sample forecasting performance. Differences across countries are seemingly linked to market liquidity. The paper further finds that the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604737
-of-sample predictions and forecasting. We identify economic drivers of our machine learning models using a novel framework based on Shapley …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012819028
-of-sample predictions and forecasting. We identify economic drivers of our machine learning models using a novel framework based on Shapley …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013313452
The paper analyses the drivers of sovereign risk for 31 advanced and emerging economies during the European sovereign debt crisis. It shows that a deterioration in countries' fundamentals and fundamentals contagion – a sharp rise in the sensitivity of financial markets to fundamentals – are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013061742
-month interest rates is explored in an exercise of out-of-sample forecasting. This yield spread appears to contain …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604340
-of-sample forecasting performance. Differences across countries are seemingly linked to market liquidity. The paper further finds that the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317370
I estimate the transmission of large global volatility shocks in international equity markets from the earlier (pre-1914) to the modern era of globalisation. To that end, I identify 43 such shocks over the period 1885-2011, defined as significant increases in unanticipated volatility in US...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605593
adding financial variables yields smaller errors in fore-casting US economic activity, especially at a five- quarter horizon …. When forecasting ability is assessed as if in real time (i.e. conditionally on the information available at the time when …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605154
We study exchange rate pass-through (ERPT), i.e., the impact of exchange rate movements on inflation, focusing on euro area import prices at a sectorally disaggregated level. Our estimation strategy is based on VAR-X models, thus incorporating both endogenous and exogenous explanatory variables....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012819048
We study exchange rate pass-through (ERPT), i.e., the impact of exchange rate movements on inflation, focusing on euro area import prices at a sectorally disaggregated level. Our estimation strategy is based on VAR-X models, thus incorporating both endogenous and exogenous explanatory...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013310201