from an aggregation of country-specific forecasts. Factor models in particular prove rather accurate, where the factors …

forecasts (bottom-up approaches). Overall, all methods perform better than a simple benchmark for short horizons (up to three … out-perform bottom-up ones for real variables, but not for prices. Finally, when country-specific forecasts are adjusted … to match direct forecasts at the aggregate levels (top-down approaches), the forecast accuracy is neither improved nor …

participants by comparing their point predictions and the mean/median/mode of their probability forecasts. We find that the … predictions. Survey results based on probability forecasts are more reliable. …

decades. Using 131 monthly time series, three popular statistical methods and the forecasts of the Federal Reserve’s Greenbook … activity declined remarkably, relative to naive forecasts, since the mid-1980s. This break down in forecast ability appears to …

We evaluate forecasts for the euro area in data-rich and ‘data-lean’ environments by comparing three different …, nowcasts and forecasts for GDP, components of GDP, and GDP of all individual euro area members, and examine forecasts for … model can be uneven (forecasts for some countries have large errors), with the PMI model dominating clearly for some …