Indices (PMI) in anticipating US real economic activity. We conduct a fully-fledged real-time out-ofsample forecasting … forecasting GDP growth, while it performs quite poorly in anticipating industrial production growth. Combining the information …

from both corporate bonds and bank loans for forecasting of real activity, unemployment, inflation and lending volumes in … lending spreads is inferior to the predictive power of the excess bond premia, the forecasting performance of models which use …

as a pseudo real time forecasting exercise, i.e. due account is taken of the pattern of available monthly variables over …

We propose a new method for medium-term forecasting using exogenous information. We first show how a shifting … for estimating the model parameters. In forecasting inflation, the central bank inflation target, if it exists, is a … natural example of such exogenous information. We illustrate the application of our method by an out-of-sample forecasting …

series at annual frequency. This makes the analysis useful in the typical forecasting environment of large institutions …