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Against the background of the rapid integration of emerging Asia into the global economy, this paper investigates the role of domestic and external factors in driving individual emerging economies in Asia. We estimate VAR models for ten countries over the period 1979Q1-2003Q4, controlling for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012778007
In this paper we provide a positive exercise on past business-cycle correlations and risk sharing in the European Union, and on the ability of insurance mechanisms and fiscal policies to smooth income fluctuations. The results suggest in particular that while some of the new Member States have...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604890
Drawing on a large sample of countries, this paper explores whether closer economic ties between countries foster business cycle synchronisation and disentangles the role of the various channels, including trade and financial linkages as well as the similarity in sectoral specialisation....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013128036
This paper aims at assessing the role of the United States in the global economy and its evolution over time. The emergence of large economic players, like China, is likely to have weakened the role of the U.S. economy as a driver of global growth. Based on a Global VAR modelling approach, this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012764530
The US economy is often considered to play a pivotal role in global growth. Such a view has persisted despite the falling contribution of the US economy to global growth (from almost 30% in 1950 to around 20% at present). In this paper, we analyse the veracity of this conjecture and consider the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012776368
To analyze the international transmission of business cycle fluctuations, we propose a new multilevel dynamic factor model with a block structure that (i) does not restrict the factors to being orthogonal and (ii) mixes data sampled at quarterly and monthly frequencies. By means of Monte Carlo...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315087
We use a version of the New Area-Wide Model (NAWM) developed at the ECB in order to quantify the gains from monetary policy cooperation. The model is calibrated in order to match a set of empirical moments. We then derive the cooperative and (open-loop) Nash monetary policies, assuming that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316628
We identify the effect of financial integration on international business cycle synchronization, by utilizing a confidential database on banks' bilateral exposure and employing a country-pair panel instrumental variables approach. Countries that become more integrated over time have less...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013141875
Recent debate has focused on the introduction of a central stabilisation capacity as a completing element of the Economic and Monetary Union. Its main objective would be to contribute cushioning country-specific economic shocks, especially when national fiscal stabilisers are run down. There are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011853325
In this paper we address the question on whether EMU has amplified or dampened intra euro area divergencies, by looking … to 2009. Our main result is that EMU does not appear to have materially changed the transmission mechanism of … idiosyncratic monetary shocks. The net effect of EMU, therefore, has been to reduce the relative performance variability. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605174