Showing 1 - 10 of 302
We address the question of whether the heterogeneity in savings is partly due to differences in pension wealth across … heterogeneity in the mean savings offset depending on age, risk attitudes and country. Third, the offset follows different patterns …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012842350
than households living in Continental Europe. Household characteristics and institutional macroeconomic variables are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013020673
This paper analyzes monetary policy in a model with a potential unanchoring of inflation expectations. The degree of unanchoring is given by how sensitively the public’s long-run inflation expectations respond to inflation surprises. I find that optimal policy moves the interest rate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014079837
Macroeconomic models often invoke consumption "habits" to explain the substantial persistence of macroeconomic consumption growth. But a large literature has found no evidence of habits in the microeconomic datasets that measure the behavior of individual households. We show that the apparent...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012918032
We study the dynamics of a Lucas-tree model with finitely lived agents who "learn from experience." Individuals update expectations by Bayesian learning based on observations from their own lifetimes. In this model, the stock price exhibits stochastic boom-and-bust fluctuations around the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013119137
We assess how firm expectations about future production impact current production and pricing decisions. Our analysis is based on a large survey of firms in the German manufacturing sector. To identify the causal effect of expectations, we rely on the timing of survey responses and match firms...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013312154
We study the transmission of (unconventional) monetary policy to the real sector when firm decisions depend on both current and future credit market conditions. For a given level of current credit access, investment and employment increases more at firms expecting bank credit to improve in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210723
We propose to treat survey-based density expectations as compositional data when testing either for heterogeneity in density forecasts across different groups of agents or for changes over time. Monte Carlo simulations show that the proposed test has more power relative to both a bootstrap...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014257125
Probabilistic job loss expectations elicited in the Consumer Expectations Survey have predictive power for future job loss. We find that an unexpected job loss leads to a negative consumption response, while this e˙ect is muted for workers with ex-ante job loss expectations - consistent with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014348864
Recent fiscal policies have aimed to stimulate household spending. In 2008, most households received one-time economic stimulus payments. In 2009, most working households received the Making Work Pay tax credit in the form of reduced withholding; other households, mainly retirees, received...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013130153