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Emerging Asia’s growth and integration: how autonomous are business cycles?

Rüffer, Rasmus; Sánchez, Marcelo; Shen, Jian-Guang - 2007

Against the background of the rapid integration of emerging Asia into the global economy, this paper investigates the role of domestic and external factors in driving individual emerging economies in Asia. We estimate VAR models for ten countries over the period 1979Q1- 2003Q4, controlling for...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604761

What drives business cycles and international trade in emerging market economies?

Sánchez, Marcelo - 2007

This paper investigates the role of domestic and external factors in explaining business cycle and international trade developments in fifteen emerging market economies. Results from signrestricted VARs show that developments in real output, inflation, real exchange rates and international trade...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604776

GDP-Inflation cyclical similarities in the CEE countries and the euro area

Macchiarelli, Corrado - 2013

-in (GDP-to-inflation) and cross-country (CEECs vs. euro area) levels. Allowing for different degrees of cyclical similarity … similar cycle either occurring in GDP or inflation, yet not in both. Finally, observing how concurrence between each CEECs … accession of most CEECs and as a result of the commodity price shock preceding 2008. Further, inflation and GDP conditional …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605597

A system approach for measuring the euro area NAIRU

Fabiani, Silvia; Mestre, Ricardo - 2001

This paper addresses the issue of measuring the NAIRU for the euro area and assessing the robustness and precision of the obtained estimates. The empirical framework adopted is based on systems combining an Okun-type relationship between cyclical unemployment and the output gap with a Phillips...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604111

Data uncertainty and the role of money as an information variable for monetary policy

Coenen, Günter; Levin, Andrew T.; Wieland, Volker - 2001

This paper shows that money can play an important role as an information variable when initial output data are measured with error and subject to revision. Using an estimated model of the euro area we find that current output estimates may be substantially improved by including money growth in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604130

Interpolation and backdating with a large information set

Angelini, Elena; Henry, Jérôme; Marcellino, Massimiliano - 2003

Existing methods for data interpolation or backdating are either univariate or based on a very limited number of series, due to data and computing constraints that were binding until the recent past. Nowadays large datasets are readily available, and models with hundreds of parameters are fastly...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604298

Comparing economic dynamics in the EU and CEE accession countries

Süppel, Ralph - 2003

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604313

The great inflation of the 1970s

Collard, Fabrice; Dellas, Harris - 2004

Was the high inflation of the 1970s mostly due to incomplete information about the structure of the economy (an unavoidable mistake as suggested by Orphanides, 2000)? Or, to weak reaction to expected inflation and/or excessive policy activism that led to indeterminacies (a policy mistake, a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604382

The Phillips curve and long-term unemployment

Llaudes, Ricardo - 2005

This paper studies the role of long-term unemployment in the determination of prices and wages. Labor market theories such as insider-outsider models predict that this type of unemployed are less relevant in the wage formation process than the newly unemployed. This paper looks for evidence of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604487

Measuring inflation persistence: a structural time series approach

Dossche, Maarten; Everaert, Gerdie - 2005

Time series estimates of inflation persistence incur an upward bias if shifts in the inflation target of the central bank remain unaccounted for. Using a structural time series approach we measure different sorts of inflation persistence allowing for an unobserved time-varying inflation target....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604541