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The paper presents a model-based assessment of fiscal multipliers operating in the euro area during the period 2011-2014. The assessment is conditional on two distinct reactions of the sovereign risk premium (either responding endogenously to fiscal shocks or being an exogenous process) and two...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012963411
increase in government spending will reduce private consumption and investment significantly. Only a model that largely ignores …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013136289
We study the impact of numerical expenditure rules on the propensity of governments to deviate from expenditure targets in response to surprises in cyclical conditions. Theoretical considerations suggest that due to political fragmentation in the budgetary process expenditure policy might be...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013146218
This paper considers the impact of changes in governments' payment discipline on the private sector. We argue that increased delays in public payments can affect private sector liquidity and profits and hence ultimately economic growth. We test this prediction empirically for European Union...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013025488
In this paper we examine the sustainability of euro area public finances against the backdrop of population ageing. We critically assess the widely used projections of the Working Group on Ageing Populations (AWG) of the EU's Economic Policy Committee and argue that ageing costs may be higher...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012765709
The literature on fiscal multipliers finds that spending-based fiscal consolidations tend to have more benign macro-economic consequences than revenue-based consolidations. By directly comparing expost data with consolidation plans, we present evidence of a systematically weaker follow-up of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315403
multipliers. We find that a higher ratio of credit to households over GDP, a smaller share of government investment and a larger …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316199
volatility); iv) subsidies (size); and v) government investment (volatility) have a sizeable, negative and statistically …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316642
strong crowding-in effect associated to public investment, which have enhanced economic growth by boosting private investment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316645
Despite intense calls for safeguarding public investment in Europe, public investment expenditure, when measured in … temporary and permanent public investment shocks generate larger fiscal multipliers than exogenous increases in public … public consumption and a permanent fall in public investment, keeping thereby the overall level of public spending constant …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316898