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Putting the New Keynesian DSGE model to the real-time forecasting test

Kolasa, Marcin; Rubaszek, Michał; Skrzypczyński, Paweł - 2009

. Nevertheless, their forecasting properties are still barely explored. We fill this gap by comparing the quality of real … priors from a DSGE model. We show that the analyzed DSGE model is relatively successful in forecasting the US economy in the … accurate short-term forecasts for interest rates. Conditional on experts' now casts, however, the forecasting power of the DSGE …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605156

Climate transition risk in the banking sector: What can prudential regulation do?

Grill, Michael; Popescu, Alexandra; Rancoita, Elena - 2024

Climate-related risks are due to increase in coming years and can pose serious threats to financial stability. This paper, by means of a DSGE model including heterogeneous firms and banks, financial frictions and prudential regulation, first shows the need of climate-related capital requirements...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014543601

Losers amongst the losers: The welfare effects of the Great Recession across cohorts

Ferrari, Alessandro - 2020

This paper studies the effect of deep recessions on intergenerational inequality by quantifying the welfare effects on households at different phases of the life cycle. Deep recessionary episodes are characterized by large declines in the prices of real and financial assets and in employment....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012422171

Real convergence and its illusions

Kolasa, Marcin - 2010

This paper uses the EAGLE, a multi-country dynamic general equilibrium model, to illustrate dynamic adjustments in a small open economy undergoing real convergence. We consider the effects of productivity catch-up and misperceptions about future productivity developments. Our results indicate...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605277

A decade (and a global financial crisis) after Blinder: The interaction between researchers and policy-makers in central banks

Bussière, Matthieu; Stracca, Livio - 2010

Periods of economic and financial stress traditionally give rise to profound changes in economic theory and in the way policy decisions are taken. Motivated by the recent interest in renewing macroeconomics after the global financial crisis, we collected the views of senior central bank staff in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605306

Interest rate effects of demographic changes in a New-Keynesian life-cycle framework

Kara, Engin; von Thadden, Leopold - 2010

This paper develops a small-scale DSGE model which embeds a demographic structure within a monetary policy framework. We extend the tractable, though non-monetary overlapping-generations model of Gertler (1999) and present a small synthesis model which combines the set-up of Gertler with a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605319