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sizeable. Prices and quantities affect the precision of the estimates of inflation while GDP is only affected by real variables …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604679
process is to use timely monthly information in order to nowcast key economic variables, such as e.g. GDP, that are typically … data releases and the resulting forecast revisions. To illustrate our ideas, we study the nowcast of euro area GDP in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605321
We consider simple methods to improve the growth nowcasts and forecasts obtained by mixed frequency MIDAS and UMIDAS models with a variety of indicators during the Covid-19 crisis and recovery period, such as combining forecasts across various specifications for the same model and/or across...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012422130
This paper derives forecasts for euro area real GDP growth based on a bottom up approach from the production side. That … is, GDP is forecast via the forecasts of value added across the different branches of activity, which is quite new in the … indicators are used to bridge the gap of missing GDP data. The process of selecting the best performing equations is accomplished …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605021
Monitoring economic conditions in real time, or nowcasting, is among the key tasks routinely performed by economists. Nowcasting entails some key challenges, which also characterise modern Big Data analytics, often referred to as the three "Vs": the large number of time series continuously...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012422115
This paper uses a panel VAR (PVAR) approach to estimating, analysing, and forecasting price dynamics in four different … can disentangle the role of unit labour costs and profit margins as the factors affecting price pressures on the supply …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605769
to the cross-sectional dimension, the forecasting performance of small monetary VARs can be improved by adding additional …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605012
-month interest rates is explored in an exercise of out-of-sample forecasting. This yield spread appears to contain …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604340
disagreement (crosssectional dispersion of forecasts) about six key economic indicators. Disagreement about real variables (GDP …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605128
There is a broad consensus in the literature that costs of information processing and acquisition may generate costly disagreements in expectations among economic agents, and that central banks may play a central role in reducing such dispersion in expectations. This paper analyses empirically...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605192