In this paper we develop a general framework to analyze state space models with time-varying system matrices where time variation is driven by the score of the conditional likelihood. We derive a new filter that allows for the simultaneous estimation of the state vector and of the time-varying...

This paper develops a new methodology for simulating fixed-income return distributions. It is shown that a traditional factor risk model, when augmented with reference returns, is capable of generating visually consistent return distributions for a broad range of fixed income instruments such as...

We generalize the classic Grossman and Laroque (1990) (GL) model of optimal portfolio choice with housing and transaction costs by introducing predictability in house prices. As in the GL model, agents only move to more expensive (cheaper) houses when their wealth-to-housing ratios reach an...

We study market perception of sovereign credit risk in the euro area during the financial crisis. In our analysis we use a parsimonious CDS pricing model to estimate the probability of default (PD) and the loss given default (LGD) as perceived by financial markets. We find that separate...

We analyze the market assessment of sovereign credit risk in an emerging market using a reduced-form model to price the credit default swap (CDS) spreads thus enabling us to derive values for the probability of default (PD) and loss given default (LGD) from the quotes of sovereign CDS contracts....

Based on a Financial Almost Ideal Demand System (FAIDS), this paper investigates the wealth structure of German households. The long-run wealth elasticities and interest rate elasticities were calculated using a unique new quarterly financial accounts macro data set which covers the period from...

The purpose of this paper is to promote the use of Bayesian model averaging for the design of satellite models that financial institutions employ for stress testing. Banks employing ’handpicked’ equations – while meeting standard economic and econometric soundness criteria – risk...

The purpose of this paper is to promote the use of Bayesian model averaging for the design of satellite models that financial institutions employ for stress testing. Banks employing 'handpicked' equations – while meeting standard economic and econometric soundness criteria – risk...

Time series estimates of inflation persistence incur an upward bias if shifts in the inflation target of the central bank remain unaccounted for. Using a structural time series approach we measure different sorts of inflation persistence allowing for an unobserved time-varying inflation target....

Is inflation persistence in the new EU Member States (NMS) comparable to that in the euro area countries? We argue that persistence may not be as different between the two country groups as one might expect. We confirm that one should work carefully with the usual estimation methods when...