The paper focuses on the estimation of the euro area output gap. We construct model-averaged measures of the output gap …

In this paper, we consider whether differences in the forecast performance of ECB SPF respondents reflect ability or … horizons, the aggregate (consensus) SPF forecast performs best …

unemployment rate, only few of the forecast combination schemes are able to outperform the simple equal-weighted average forecast …

) Macroeconomic Projection Exercises regularly undertaken by ECB/Eurosystem staff. We present estimation results for the NAWM that are …-response functions and forecast-error-variance decompositions, by inspecting the model-based sample moments, and by examining the model …

on the estimation of their predictive distributions, with special attention being paid to the mean and the covariance …-Wide Model (NAWM) that has been designed for use in the macroeconomic projections at the European Central Bank. The forecast … growth over the forecast evaluation period and, therefore, it tends to overestimate nominal wages. As a consequence, both the …