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Rational Inattention and the Business Cycle Effects of Productivity and News Shocks

Maćkowiak, Bartosz; Wiederholt, Mirko - 2023

news about future productivity. By contrast, the baseline RBC model produces neither persistent growth rates nor business … cycle comovement after news shocks …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014353582

Endogenous TFP, Business Cycle Persistence and the Productivity Slowdown in the Euro Area

Spitzer, Martin - 2020

This paper analyses the endogeneity of euro area total factor productivity and its role in business cycle amplification by estimating a medium-scale DSGE model with endogenous productivity mechanism on euro area data. In this framework, total factor productivity evolves endogenously as a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012834776

Firm expectations and economic activity

Enders, Zeno; Hünnekes, Franziska; Müller, Gernot J. - 2021

We assess how firm expectations about future production impact current production and pricing decisions. Our analysis is based on a large survey of firms in the German manufacturing sector. To identify the causal effect of expectations, we rely on the timing of survey responses and match firms...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012819035

News and policy foresight in a macro-finance model of the US

Badarinza, Cristian; Margaritov, Emil - 2011

-scale DSGE model for the US economy. We consider news about total factor productivity and investment-specific technology, as well … role played by productivity news in this class of models. In contrast, we uncover a non-trivial role for investment …-specific news and anticipated monetary policy shocks not only in the historical and variance decomposition of real economic …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605359

The Cyclicality of Effective Wages Within Employer-Employee Matches : Evidence from German Panel Data

Anger, Silke - 2008

Using individual based micro-data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP), I analyze the cyclicality of real wages for male workers within employer-employee matches over the period 1984-2004, and compare different wage measures: the standard hourly wage rate, hourly wage earnings...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012773491

Predicting Recession Probabilities with Financial Variables Over Multiple Horizons

Fornari, Fabio; Lemke, Wolfgang - 2021

We forecast recession probabilities for the United States, Germany and Japan. The predictions are based on the widely-used probit approach, but the dynamics of regressors are endogenized using a VAR. The combined model is called a ‘ProbVAR’. At any point in time, the ProbVAR allows to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316154

Identifying the Role of Labor Markets for Monetary Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model

Christoffel, Kai; Küster, Keith; Linzert, Tobias - 2021

We focus on a quantitative assessment of rigid labor markets in an environment of stable monetary policy. We ask how wages and labor market shocks feed into the inflation process and derive monetary policy implications. Towards that aim, we structurally model matching frictions and rigid wages...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317584

Are Asset Price Data Informative About News Shocks? A DSGE Perspective

Iskrev, Nikolay I. - 2018

Standard economic intuition suggests that asset prices are more sensitive to news than other economic aggregates. This … models containing news shocks. This paper shows how to formally evaluate the information content of observed variables with … business cycle models with news shocks. The contribution of asset prices is found to be relatively small. The methodology is …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012916362

A New Identification of Fiscal Shocks Based on the Information Flow

Ricco, Giovanni - 2015

empirical proxies for fiscal news and agents' misperceptions, our approach identifies three types of innovations to government …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013020630

Learning from Prices : Amplification and Business Fluctuations

Chahrour, Ryan - 2017

We provide a new theory of expectations-driven business cycles in which consumers' learning from prices dramatically alters the effects of aggregate shocks. Learning from prices causes changes in aggregate productivity to shift aggregate beliefs, generating positive price-quantity comovement....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012956266