forecasts (bottom-up approaches). Overall, all methods perform better than a simple benchmark for short horizons (up to three … out-perform bottom-up ones for real variables, but not for prices. Finally, when country-specific forecasts are adjusted … to match direct forecasts at the aggregate levels (top-down approaches), the forecast accuracy is neither improved nor …

from an aggregation of country-specific forecasts. Factor models in particular prove rather accurate, where the factors …

results from an aggregation of country-specific forecasts. Factor models in particular prove rather accurate, where the …

forecasts over a subsequent period. We formalize this idea by defining a forecast breakdown as a situation in which the out … of a forecast breakdown in the Phillips’ curve forecasts of U.S. inflation, and links it to inflation volatility and to …

-specific forecasts (bottom-up approaches). Overall, all methods perform better than a simple benchmark for short horizons (up to three … outperform bottom-up ones for real variables, but not for prices. Finally, when country-specific forecasts are adjusted to match … direct forecasts at the aggregate levels (top-down approaches), the forecast accuracy is neither improved nor deteriorated (i …