This paper analyzes monetary policy in a model with a potential unanchoring of inflation expectations. The degree of … unanchoring is given by how sensitively the public’s long-run inflation expectations respond to inflation surprises. I find that … inflation fluctuations when expectations are well-anchored. Furthermore, I estimate the model-implied relationship that …

perceived inflation persistence by the private sector. Such a sophisticated policy reduces inflation persistence and inflation … volatility at little cost in terms of output gap volatility. Persistent responses to cost-push shocks and stability of inflation … play is very different. In the case of commitment it relies on expectations of future policy actions affecting inflation …

This paper explores the role that inflation forecasts play in the uncertainty surrounding the estimated effects of … alternative monetary rules on unemployment dynamics in the euro area and the US. We use the inflation forecasts of 8 competing … relative to the different inflation models under two rules. The results suggest that model uncertainty can be a serious issue …

This paper provides a toolkit for extracting accurate information about inflation expectations using inflation …-linked bonds. First, we show how to estimate term structures of zero-coupon real rates and break-even inflation rates (BEIRs) in … the euro area. This improves the analysis of developments in inflation expectations by providing constant maturity …

mechanical influence on CPI inflation and wage dynamics through the indexation schemes. We also illustrate that any fine …-tuning strategy which tries to counteract the direct effects of oil-price changes in headline inflation would prove counterproductive … both in terms to stabilization of underlying inflation and by causing unnecessary volatility in the macroeconomic landscape …

Did the decline in inflation rates from 2012 to 2015 and the low levels of market-based inflation expectations lead to de …-anchored inflation dynamics in the euro area? This paper is the first time-varying event study to investigate the reaction of inflation …-linked swap (ILS) rates – a market-based measure of inflation expectations – to macroeconomic surprises in the euro area. Compared …

This paper analyses the distribution of long-term inflation expectations in the euro area using individual density …

This paper estimates a time-varying AR-GARCH model of inflation producing measures of inflation uncertainty for the … change associated with the start of EMU in 1999. The main findings are as follows. Steadystate inflation and inflation … can achieve lower inflation uncertainty by lowering the inflation rate …