forecasting directly aggregate variables (direct approaches) outperform methods based on the aggregation of country …Forecasting the world economy is a difficult task given the complex interrelationships within and across countries …, first, at ranking various forecasting methods in terms of forecast accuracy and, second, at checking whether methods …

content and its potential use for fiscal forecasting and monitoring purposes. The models are estimated with annual and …

forecasting daily electricity prices in two of the main European markets, Germany and Italy. We do that by means of mixed …-frequency models, introducing a Bayesian approach to reverse unrestricted MIDAS models (RU-MIDAS). We study the forecasting accuracy …

-time estimates to check the stability of the estimates to GDP revisions. We finally run a forecasting experiment to evaluate the … estimates in real time. Our measures help forecasting inflation over most of our evaluation sample (2001-2010) but fail …

We propose a new method for medium-term forecasting using exogenous information. We first show how a shifting … for estimating the model parameters. In forecasting inflation, the central bank inflation target, if it exists, is a … natural example of such exogenous information. We illustrate the application of our method by an out-of-sample forecasting …

series at annual frequency. This makes the analysis useful in the typical forecasting environment of large institutions …

-run predictions of a wide class of theoretical models yields substantial improvements in the forecasting performance …

This paper assesses the forecasting performance of various variable reduction and variable selection methods. A small … and a large set of wisely chosen variables are used in forecasting the industrial production growth for four Euro Area …