Showing 1 - 10 of 186
Forward guidance operates via the expectations formation process of the agents in the economy. In standard quantitative macroeconomic models, the expectations are unobserved state variables and little scrutiny is devoted to analysing the dynamic behaviour of these expectations. We show that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012422086
Forward guidance operates via the expectations formation process of the agents in the economy. In standard quantitative macroeconomic models, the expectations are unobserved state variables and little scrutiny is devoted to analysing the dynamic behaviour of these expectations. We show that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012830324
This paper describes an algorithm to compute the distribution of conditional forecasts, i.e. projections of a set of variables of interest on future paths of some other variables, in dynamic systems. The algorithm is based on Kalman filtering methods and is computationally viable for large...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605778
We build a dynamic factor model with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility and use it to decompose the variance of a large set of financial and macroeconomic variables for 22 OECD countries spanning from 1960 onwards into contributions from country-specific uncertainty,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011916851
, we show that the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) eased the access to the equity market and, to a larger extent …, the bond market; thereby, enhancing regional financial integration in the euro area. Beside the effect of the EMU, the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604672
investors preferred portfolio assets of countries where the central bank gave relative importance to money. As for EMU, once … among euro area countries have increased due to the catalyst effect of EMU. Country's shares in the world market portfolio …, home bias, initial degree of misallocation across countries, past returns, diversification benefits and EMU can explain 35 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604724
change associated with the start of EMU in 1999. The main findings are as follows. Steadystate inflation and inflation … uncertainty have declined steadily since the inception of EMU, whilst short-run uncertainty has increased, mainly owing to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605275
Over the last decades, macro-economists have renewed their efforts to reduce the gap between monetary macroeconomics and real-world central banking. This paper reviews how macroeconomics has since 2016 approached the possible introduction of retail central bank digital currencies (CBDC). A...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015199524
Using randomized control trials (RCTs) applied over time in different countries, we study whether the economic environment affects how agents learn from new information. We show that as inflation rose in advanced economies, both households and firms became more attentive and informed about...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014543627
We provide a new theory of expectations-driven business cycles in which consumers' learning from prices dramatically alters the effects of aggregate shocks. Learning from prices causes changes in aggregate productivity to shift aggregate beliefs, generating positive price-quantity comovement....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011804368