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Forecasting economic aggregates by disaggregates

Hendry, David F.; Hubrich, Kirstin - 2006

We suggest an alternative use of disaggregate information to forecast the aggregate variable of interest, that is to include disaggregate information or disaggregate variables in the aggregate model as opposed to first forecasting the disaggregate variables separately and then aggregating those...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604635

Understanding and forecasting aggregate and disaggregate price dynamics

Bermingham, Colin; D’Agostino, Antonello - 2011

The issue of forecast aggregation is to determine whether it is better to forecast a series directly or instead … results, it is generally accepted that forecast aggregation is an empirical issue. Empirical results in the literature often … go unexplained. This leaves forecasters in the dark when confronted with the option of forecast aggregation. We take our …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605411

Inflation perceptions and expectations in the euro area: the role of news

Badarinza, Cristian; Buchmann, Marco - 2009

The aim of this study is to assess empirically to what extent the degree of heterogeneity of consumers’ inflation perceptions and expectations is driven by the flow of information related to current and future price developments in the euro area. We conduct the analysis both on an aggregate...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605134

Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in the Euro Area : The Role of News

Badarinza, Cristian; Buchmann, Marco - 2021

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316330

The pass-through to inflation of gas price shocks

López, Lucia; Odendahl, Florens; Párraga Rodríguez, … - 2024

This paper uses a Bayesian Structural Vector Autoregressive (BSVAR) framework to estimate the pass-through of unexpected gas price supply shocks on HICP inflation in the euro area and its four largest economies. In comparison to oil price shocks, gas price shocks have approximately one-third...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015199451

Macro uncertainty, unemployment risk, and consumption dynamics

Oh, Joonseok; Rogantini Picco, Anna - 2024

Households' income heterogeneity is important to explain consumption dynamics in response to aggregate macro uncertainty: an increase in uncertainty generates a consumption drop that is stronger for income poorer households. At the same time, labor markets are strongly responsive to macro...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015199460

Inflation (de-)anchoring in the euro area

Burban, Valentin; De Backer, Bruno; Vladu, Andreea L. - 2024

This article measures the degree of potential de-anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area vis-à-vis the inflation objective of the European Central Bank (ECB). A no-arbitrage term structure model that allows for a time-varying long-term mean of inflation expectations, π∗t , is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015199473

How income expectations adjust to inflation - a consumers' expectations-revealed pass-through

Aprigliano, Valentina; Di Nino, Virginia - 2024

We use inflation and income growth expectations from the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey to measure the subjective expected pass-through of inflation to income in the main euro area countries. By aggregating consumers' responses to probabilistic questions, we obtain significantly higher...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015199500

Fiscal policy and inflation: Accounting for non-linearities in government debt

Checherita-Westphal, Cristina; Pesso, Tom - 2024

This paper investigates the interplay between discretionary fiscal policy and inflation in the euro area, emphasizing the role of public debt levels in modulating this relationship. It explores how fiscal expansions or contractions influence inflationary pressures, particularly under varying...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015199511

SAFE to update inflation expectations? New survey evidence on euro area firms

Baumann, Ursel; Ferrando, Annalisa; Georgarakos, Dimitris; … - 2024

This paper provides new survey evidence on firms' inflation expectations in the euro area. Building on the ECB's Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises (SAFE), we introduce consistent measurement of inflation expectations across countries and shed new light on the properties and causal...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015199513