This paper provides new evidence on the behaviour of euro area aggregate loans to the private sector. Using a sample covering the last twenty years, a cointegrating vector linking the real stock of loans to a small set of domestic macroeconomic variables is found. Besides real GDP and prices,...

We model the determinants of loans to non-financial corporations in the euro area. Using the Johansen (1992) methodology, we identify three cointegrating relationships. These relationships are interpreted as the long-run loan demand, investment and loan supply equations. The short-run dynamics...

This paper investigates the importance of including data on new housing supply in Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models in forecasting the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), focusing on the U.S. While existing models have added a financial sector and real estate sector, they have...

This paper proposes a framework for monitoring vulnerabilities related to the residential real estate sector in a cross-country context. The framework might be useful for complementing or cross-checking signals available from existing approaches. It takes into account three dimensions of real...

I propose a new model, conditional quantile regression (CQR), that generates density forecasts consistent with a specific view of the future evolution of some variables. This addresses a shortcoming of existing quantile regression-based models, for example the at-risk framework popularised by...

In this paper we propose an alternative to traditional hedonics for estimating new multiunit housing inflation, adjusting for quality changes. By relying on the within-site variation we control in a very general way for unobserved housing characteristics using site-specific effects. Precise...

In this paper, we seek to quantify the importance of state-level housing price spillovers and interest rate shocks to house price developments in the United States. The econometric approach involves an application of the recently developed global VAR (GVAR) as presented in Dées, DiMauro,...

This paper examines the house price dynamics for thirteen European countries. A Markov-switching error correction model is estimated on house price returns at the country level, with deviations between house prices and fundamentals feeding into the short-run dynamics. The system is assumed to be...

Crossing borders, be it international or regional, often go together with price, wage or indeed wealth discontinuities. This paper identifies substantial wealth differences between Luxembourg resident households and cross-border commuter households despite their similar incomes. The average...

This paper assesses the role of the housing market in the transmission of conventional and unconventional monetary policy across euro area regions. By exploiting a novel regional dataset on housing-related variables, a structural panel VAR analysis shows that monetary policy propagates...