Showing 1 - 10 of 509
We provide a versatile nowcasting toolbox that supports three model classes (dynamic factor models, large Bayesian VAR, bridge equations) and offers methods to manage data selection and adjust for Covid-19 observations. The toolbox aims at simplifying two key tasks: creating new nowcasting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015199442
Financial decision makers often consider the information in currency option valuations when making assessments about future exchange rates. The purpose of this paper is to systematically assess the quality of option based volatility, interval and density forecasts. We use a unique dataset...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604412
Economic policy makers, international organisations and private-sector forecasters commonly use short-term forecasts of real GDP growth based on monthly indicators, such as industrial production, retail sales and confidence surveys. An assessment of the reliability of such tools and of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604668
Indices (PMI) in anticipating US real economic activity. We conduct a fully-fledged real-time out-ofsample forecasting … forecasting GDP growth, while it performs quite poorly in anticipating industrial production growth. Combining the information …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605500
as a pseudo real time forecasting exercise, i.e. due account is taken of the pattern of available monthly variables over …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605021
financial information leads to a significant improvement in forecasting business cycle developments in four economic areas, at … can anticipate aggregate fluctuations from those that do not help to this aim. Beyond the purely forecasting application …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605412
information over and above the EDF, especially at longer forecasting horizons. At an aggregate level the DI shows superior … forecasting power compared to the EDF, for horizons between 3 and 12 months. We illustrate the predictive power of the DI measure …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014374336
financial information leads to a significant improvement in forecasting business cycle developments in four economic areas, at … can anticipate aggregate fluctuations from those that do not help to this aim. Beyond the purely forecasting application …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013121824
information over and above the EDF, especially at longer forecasting horizons. At an aggregate level the DI shows superior … forecasting power compared to the EDF, for horizons between 3 and 12 months. We illustrate the predictive power of the DI measure …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014238457
returns and the equity variance premium. We evaluate a plethora of state-of-the-art volatility forecasting models to produce …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605720