We explore the increasing divergence between economic growth and energy consumption through energy-saving technical progress. Proposing a new measure of energy-saving technology, we study the underlying drivers in a semi-structural model of the U.S. economy. Our analysis shows that energy price...

This paper reviews various approaches to the measurement of core inflation that have been proposed in recent years. The objective is to determine whether the ECB should pay special attention to one or other of these measures in assessing inflation developments in the euro area. I put particular...

This paper compares the forecasting performance of some leading models of inflation for the cross section of G-7 countries. We show that bivariate and trivariate models suggested by economic theory or statistical analysis are hardly better than univariate models. Phillips curve specifications...

In this paper, we consider the effect of a monetary union in a model with a significant role for financial market imperfections. We do so by introducing a financial accelerator into a stochastic general equilibrium model of a two country economy. We show that financial market imperfections...

This paper contributes to the literature on the impact of EMU on trade, adding two new elements. First, we propose a theoretical model for explaining how the euro could have increased trade by the large amounts found in the empirical literature. Second, we propose a sectoral dataset to test the...

This paper shows how to compute a second-order accurate solution of a non-linear rational expectation model using algorithms developed for the solution of linear rational expectation models. The result is a state-space representation for the realized values of the variables of the model. This...

This paper reviews reassesses the methodology and principal findings of the “Rose effect”, i.e. the trade effects of currency union, looking at both EMU and non-EMU currency unions. The consensus estimate suggests that the euro has already boosted intra-euro area trade by five to ten...

This paper shows how large-dimensional dynamic factor models are suitable for structural analysis. We establish sufficient conditions for identification of the structural shocks and the associated impulse response functions. In particular, we argue that, if the data follow an approximate factor...

Phenomena such as the Great Moderation have increased the attention of macro-economists towards models where shock processes are not (log-)normal. This paper studies a class of discrete-time rational expectations models where the variance of exogenous innovations is subject to stochastic regime...

This paper aims to shed light on why the downturn in global trade during the intensification of the financial crisis in 2008Q4-2009Q1 was so severe and synchronized across the world, and also examines the subsequent recovery in global trade during 2009Q2-2010Q1. The paper finds that a structural...