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Recent interest in ‘Risk Management’ has highlighted the relevance of Bayesian analysis for robust monetary- policy making. This paper sets out a comprehensive methodology for designing policy rules inspired by such considerations. We design rules that are robust with respect to model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604916
Sargent (2003, 2007) assumes unstructured model uncertainty and uses a minimax robustness criterion to design monetary rules … instrument. Finally, again for both types of robustness exercise we explore the implications of policy design when the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604945
This paper employs stochastic simulations of the New Area-Wide Model—a micro-founded open-economy model developed at the ECB—to investigate the consequences of the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates for the evolution of risks to price stability in the euro area during the recent...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605627
This paper employs stochastic simulations of the New Area-Wide Model -- a micro-founded open-economy model developed at the ECB -- to investigate the consequences of the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates for the evolution of risks to price stability in the Euro area during the recent...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013077685
The secular decline in the equilibrium real interest rate observed over the past decades has materially limited the room for policy-rate reductions in recessions, and has led to a marked increase in the incidence of episodes where policy rates are likely to be at, or near, the effective lower...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012605268
The optimal weights on indicators in models with partial information about the state of the economy and forward-looking variables are derived and interpreted, both for equilibria under discretion and under commitment. An example of optimal monetary policy with a partially observable potential...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604058
In deciding the monetary policy stance, central bankers need to evaluate carefully the risks the current economic situation poses to price stability. We propose to regard the central banker as a risk manager who aims to contain inflation within pre-specified bounds. We develop formal tools of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604272
We examine the performance of forward-looking inflation-forecast-based rules in open economies. In a New Keynesian two-bloc model, a methodology first employed by Batini and Pearlman (2002) is used to obtain analytically the feedback parameters/horizon pairs associated with unique and stable...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604386
We examine an interesting puzzle in monetary economics between what monetary authorities claim (namely to be forward-looking and pre-emptive) and the poor stabilization properties routinely reported for forecast-based rules. Our resolution is that central banks should be viewed as following...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604689
The objectives of this paper are: first, to quantify the stabilization welfare gains from commitment; second, to examine how commitment to an optimal rule can be sustained as an equilibrium and third, to find a simple interest rate rule that closely approximates the optimal commitment one. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604755