the beginning of 2018. They also have performed well in forecasting the direction of inflation. In terms of the …

parameterized unrestricted model towards a parsimonious naïve benchmark, and thus reduce estimation uncertainty. This paper studies … subjective choices in the setting of the prior. Moreover, it performs very well both in terms of out-of-sample forecasting …—as well as factor models—and accuracy in the estimation of impulse response functions. …

distribution. As an empirical illustration, we use euro area data and compare the forecasting performance of the New Area …

provide more robust forecasts. We investigate this issue for forecasts from a range of short-term forecasting models. Our …

. Nevertheless, their forecasting properties are still barely explored. We fill this gap by comparing the quality of real … priors from a DSGE model. We show that the analyzed DSGE model is relatively successful in forecasting the US economy in the … accurate short-term forecasts for interest rates. Conditional on experts' now casts, however, the forecasting power of the DSGE …

. Nevertheless, their forecasting properties are still barely explored. We fill this gap by comparing the quality of real … priors from a DSGE model. We show that the analyzed DSGE model is relatively successful in forecasting the US economy in the … accurate short-term forecasts for interest rates. Conditional on experts' now casts, however, the forecasting power of the DSGE …

algorithm for the estimation of the restricted models. We analyze a system of monthly US data on money and income. The test … results in MS-VARs contradict those in linear VARs: the money aggregate M1 is useful for forecasting income and for predicting …